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Brodie Van Wagenen - His First Year Starts with a Bang

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  • #61
    Originally posted by jeffmetsfan View Post
    Brodie has the right mentality. He wanted to pick his guys for catcher and reliever. Now that the major missing pieces are depth, he will wait until the market sets itself.
    don't disagree with the notion as long as they keep their finger on the pulse of the reliever market. If the pieces start to fall, you don't want to be caught in the clearance aisle and end up with that Hawaiian shirt that you didn't really want, but bought because you didn't go to TJMaxx to leave with nothing!

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    • #62
      Over the last several days the Dakotas, Minn., Wisc. have been hammered with blizzard conditions and deadly temps. I can imagine that many folks in the upper mid west have laughed at the idea of Global Warming. Meanwhile over on the east coast annual rain fall rose by...37% for 2018 on LI and by excessive amounts up and down the coast while arid condition prevail in the west.

      It is human nature, two people can look at the same circumstances and data and reach radically different conclusions. Someday we'll know who was right and wrong.

      Eight years ago Alderson took the reins of a team heading into a tear down at a time when the ownership was under financial assault. Fan expectations were minimal. The contracts were traded and the farm system underwent due diligence. Other than one miracle moment the eight seasons the eight years were a study in stagnancy.

      It is now a time of expectation and BVW has been on the job for less than ten weeks. BVW inherited a team with capable players and weaknesses, he has addressed weaknesses with an upgrade at C and added two effective arms to a BP that ranked 28th in the ML. CF has been a weakness and could be again, but if there is no logical solution, can that be held against him? IMO Pollock is not a solution, he is another potential weakness.

      Both ownership and BVW claim that money is still available to improve the team.

      It is human nature, two people can look at the same circumstances and data and reach radically different conclusions.

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      • #63
        Nice preamble

        Luckily we won't have to wait 8 years to see if there was more money available or not...

        Another of those high level relief pieces has dropped. The Phillies didn't let having a closer and a consistent 8th inning guy stop them from getting some depth in the most volatile position... RP

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        • #64
          Can someone explain to me why I am no longer the biggest pessimist on this forum? Who am I and what have I done with myself??!!

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          • yogi8
            yogi8 commented
            Editing a comment
            "Do not set aside your happiness. Do not wait to be happy in the future. The best time to be happy is always now.” Roy Bennett

        • #65
          Think its the lack of Vitamin D here in winter NY...

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          • West Coast Mets Fan
            Editing a comment
            Milk, drink lot's of milk, straight from the tap whenever possible!

        • #66
          https://twitter.com/MattEhalt/status/

          Drew's Sig

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          • #67
            Big talk, but when all is said and done it was a typical Mets offseason, IMO.

            One big move, some small things, dumpster diving, and a whole lot of "if we are healthy and everything breaks right" bravado.

            I don't see much difference between this year and every other year, no matter who the GM is.

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            • #68
              Big talk, but when all is said and done it was a typical Mets offseason

              When was the last time that the Mets had the defensive strength up the middle that we have going into 2019? A BP with 2 AS closers, a CY at the top of a rotation that is unequaled in the league. Find the thread 'Abandon All Hope' and reflect back to Alderson's Exec. of the Year opening day bench. That was the bench in his 5th year as GM.

              Different team, different attitude and different GM running the show. We had 24 players on the DL last season and still played .549 ball from July 1 on.

              .

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              • #69
                Remember when Benny Agbayani went on a talk show and stated that the Mets were going to beat the Yankees in the World Series...that didn't work out so well

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                • #70
                  Originally posted by yogi8 View Post
                  Big talk, but when all is said and done it was a typical Mets offseason

                  When was the last time that the Mets had the defensive strength up the middle that we have going into 2019? A BP with 2 AS closers, a CY at the top of a rotation that is unequaled in the league. Find the thread 'Abandon All Hope' and reflect back to Alderson's Exec. of the Year opening day bench. That was the bench in his 5th year as GM.

                  Different team, different attitude and different GM running the show. We had 24 players on the DL last season and still played .549 ball from July 1 on.

                  .
                  The point is, as usual, there was ONE major move and some smaller fill-ins with a lot of big talk.

                  The same thing we have done for years.

                  This team is one or two players from REAL championship level action. What we have is a decent, potentially contending team. "Meaningful games in September" crap that we always have.

                  Big, tough Brody spoke about "eliminating the ifs". I don't see where much has changed.

                  IF Cano is back to his usual performance. IF Cano was not a product of steroids. IF Frazier is healthy. IF Conforto stays healthy. IF McNeil is not a flash in the pan. IF Alonzo has enough offense to overcome his defense. IF Wheeler's second half is the leap forward we hope it was. IF DeGrom's regression to the mean is not catastrophic. IF Thor puts in a full season. IF Matz puts in a full season, IF Vargas has a better second season. IF Lagares and Broxton can give at least average production. IF Rosario continues to improve. IF Ramos and d'Arnaud can stay healthy enough. IF Nimmo builds on last year. IF Mickey learns from his basically horrid first season.IF IF IF.

                  Big talk about "come get us". Careful what you wish for, VG. Right now we are the second best team in the division at best.

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                  • #71
                    When the Mets first signed Jed Lowrie, I found it curious, and decided to dig deeper into the signing. Not knowing that McNeil was an option in LF, here's how I saw the team aligned pre-signing.

                    Infield
                    3B - Frasier/McNeil
                    SS - Rosario
                    2B - Cano,/McNeil
                    1B - Frasier/McNeil/Cano, JD Davis on the bench/AAA shuttle, Alonso after 14 games or so if hitting, with Smith as an outside shot if he blows the doors off in Spring Training

                    The obvious need here is a backup SS. Doesn't have to have a gold glove, just serviceable. I'm not seeing McNeil as an option there.

                    Outfield
                    Conforto - RF, LF and is CF capable at need
                    Nimmo - RF, LF and is CF capable at need (MLB.com just ranked Nimmo as the 6th best RF in baseball)
                    http://www.sny.tv/mets/news/mets-bra...work/302927356
                    Lagares - CF, excellent defense, and yes, I am aware of his injury history
                    Broxton - CF backup, excellent defense, great baserunner
                    Davis - also can play corner OF, not a lot of range, but a plus arm. A fill-in option at best.

                    OK, so I was thinking that the Mets might be looking at a COF, preferable one that bats RH. Also, Pollock was still unsigned, asking for 5/$80M, with no takers so far.

                    And then we signed Lowrie. OK, how does this fit, and how does it compare to the options we have available. (And, just for the record, no, I'm not considering Harper or Machado as options. Want to discuss that, cool, make your own post, have fun.)

                    Doesn't this overcrowd the IF, and leave the OF short an option? That was my first thought. Well, the heretofore unknown option of McNeil in LF changes this a lot.

                    Let's look at McNeil as a LF option. He is slated in as a utility guy, moving off the 2B position he played last year, due to fill in at 3B & 1B. So he was moving off his more familiar position anyway, and having to play others that he had less time at. If you remember, for his first few weeks in the majors at 2B, he had some struggles. He put the time and effort in to improve, and it was evident he did as the season progressed. And did this extra defensive work affect his hitting? Not at all. So I have few worries here. Playing LF vs. 3B & 1B, the kid won't fail due to lack of effort.

                    OK, back to the IF. we line up as 3B - Lowrie, SS - Rosario, 2B - Cano, 1B - Frasier/Davis/Alonso/Smith. McNeil can cover all the positions except SS when not in the OF, or on a double switch. Lowrie can back up SS. If Alonso forces his way onto the team and pushes Frasier to the bench, I am cool with that. Davis on the bench. If the unlikely happens, and Smith hits, Davis has options left.

                    Now the OF. Vs. a RHP, we can line up McNeil/Nimmo/Conforto to start, with 2 excellent RH hitting defensive replacements waiting. Vs. a LHP, we can line up Conforto/Lagares/Nimmo. I'm good with both of those alignments.

                    What about the RH bat that I talked about above if we had signed another OF, instead of Lowrie? Lowrie is a SH, and there is your added RH bat vs. a LHP.

                    Now let's get to the final piece of this - Lowrie vs. Pollock.

                    I am fine with the positional flexibility provided by Lowrie vs. the improved CF defense against RHP provided by Pollock.

                    Looking at contracts - granted, Pollock is unsigned, but is asking for 5/$80M, and there is currently no team interested in meeting that.
                    Lowrie - 2 years @ $20M ($10M per). - Will take him through age 35-36.
                    Pollock - 5 years @ $80M (asking price). That's $16M per. For comparison purposes, let's drop that down to 4 years @ $60M ($15M per). Trying to be reasonable here, figuring he won't get all that he is asking, settling some on both length and amount. If you have a quibble regarding the amount per, drop it a little more, my analysis here should still hold up in that scenario. 4 years takes him through age 31-34.

                    Durability
                    Pollock - his last 3 seasons has played 12, 112, 113 games. And this will magically get better with age? Isn't the big knock on Lagares that he just can't stay healthy? And as age and injuries continue to take their toll on Pollock, as they do on every athlete, how many of those years will he be able to stay in CF?
                    Lowrie - his last 3 season has played 87, 153, 157. Yes, he is older, but those 3 years are for his age 32, 33, 34 seasons. Otherwise know as the last 3 years of a 4 year contract for Pollock. Pollock couldn't crack 113 games aged 28, 29 or 30.

                    Production
                    I didn't think it was fair to Pollock to go by counting stats (ex. HRs or 2Bs etc.) due to time missed, so I am going with rate stats - slash line. Assuming health, how did they each perform. I was going to go with the last 3 years, but Pollock only played 12 games that year, and I felt that the missed time unfairly skewed his results, so I am using 2017 & 2018.

                    Pollock
                    2017 - .266/.330/.471/.801
                    2018 - .257/.316/.484/.800

                    Lowrie
                    2017 - .277/.360/.448/.808
                    2018 - .267/.353/.448/.801

                    Amazingly similar. Slight edge to Pollock in SLG, slight edge to Lowrie in OBP & AVG, but I was surprised at the evenness for comparison purposes.

                    Summary - OK, how did all this fit together for me?

                    The signing of Lowrie solidified the IF for me. We are set at 3B, SS, 2B. We only have 1B up in the air, and just need one of Frasier/Alonso/Davis/Smith/sometimes McNeil to work out. We have tons of positional flexibility, with competent to plus gloves everywhere except 1B. It does put pressure on the OF to some degree. Nimmo & Conforto are locks, defense is covered by Lagares & Broxton. The big question here is McNeil's ability to adapt to LF, or, if not, can Davis turn his AAA batting title into at least a serviceable MLB career.

                    The signing of Pollock would have solidified the OF for me. Conforto/Pollock/Nimmo with defense covered by Lagares & Broxton. IF would be covered at 2B & SS, needing production from Frasier/McNeil/Alonso/Davis/Smith at 3B & 1B. Still would need a backup SS, figuring with the money spent on Pollock, we are done spending, and are looking at Cecchini or Guillorme.

                    And mjjm's answer is... I prefer the Lowrie option. Here's why...

                    Contract $$$ and length - I'm spending $20M over two years on a guy who played 310 games out of a possible 324 in 2017-2018 vs. $60M over 4 years for a guy who played 225 of those same 324 games. I'm just not confident on Pollock's ability to stay healthy enough to play CF fulltime over the length of the contract. And if he has to move off of CF, then how do I play him, Conforto & Nimmo all at the same time. I'm not paying him to ride the bench. His allure is his ability to play CF. I can pay Lagares a lot less than that to NOT play CF. It has nothing to do with big/small market excuses, to me Lowrie is a less risky expenditure of assets for a short time period. Also, the $10M for Lowrie vs. an approximately $15M for Pollock this year leaves us money to spend at the trade deadline if needed.

                    Positional Coverage
                    I like our IF. A lot. I like the flexibility and the fact that the majority of the uncertainty is only at 1 position. While our OF defense could be stronger, I have a lot of confidence in Nimmo to handle a lot of innings in CF. Plus we have 2 excellent defensive options. 4 of our OFs have positional flexibility - Lagares & Broxton can play all, Nimmo & Conforto can play corners and CF at need. I realize that a lot is riding on McNeil in LF, but a lot was riding on McNeil at 3B or 1B, and all 3 are different positions for him. Neither Lowrie nor Pollock alleviated McNeil's positional switch.
                    Last edited by mjjm367; 20-Jan-2019, 05:01 PM. Reason: typos

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                    • NY FANG
                      NY FANG commented
                      Editing a comment
                      Nice job MJJM, used too many words - scared everyone away from the thread for 2 weeks

                  • #72
                    https://twitter.com/SNYtv/status/

                    Drew's Sig

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                    • #73
                      apparently you can't "comment" on twitter posts. Who knew?

                      Needs some launch angle, lots of routine 6-3 in there haha

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                      • #74
                        Anyone see Thor's reply?

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                        • #75
                          one thing that I "miss" with the new regime: publicly humiliating players that don't show up at least a week before their official reporting deadline...

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