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Mets 2018/9 Off Season - The Winter Meeting Is Over, What Have We Learn?

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  • Mets 2018/9 Off Season - The Winter Meeting Is Over, What Have We Learn?

    Drew's Sig

  • #2
    Drew's Sig

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    • #3
      Drew's Sig

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      • #4
        Drew's Sig

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        • #5
          1. Big bat.
          2. Legit closer.
          3. Bullpen, bullpen, bullpen.

          Plain and simple.

          Comment


          • #6
            Brian, for #1, that's kind of part of the issue... big bat, yes.. where though?

            2B - is there a bat out there better than McNeil's potential? I give it to the kid.
            SS - Rosario is the future htere.
            3B - Frazier has 9M committed for next year. I don't see the Mets getting rid of that.
            OF - Ces, Conforto, Bruce, Nimmo, Lags. Overcrowded already, I don't see a big investement there. Sadly, Bruce was the OF money, and it's spent.

            So that leaves:

            C: Is there a "big bat" out there?
            1B: Then you're essentially cutting Smith and Alonso loose as trade bait...

            So unless the Mets are prepared to eat some crow on the moves they made last off season, there's really no where to put a "big bat".

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            • #7
              Another big bat, certainly, since the big bats have been so crucial to our years of success. Sarcasm...what we need is health. We have the bats, Conforto, Cespedes, Bruce and Frazier.

              Conforto; This is the most complex, because it is a mix of outstanding performance, injury, recovery and the unknown. It is also split down the middle with performance for 44 weeks and the latter for the other 44 weeks of his career since he arrived late July 2015. 10 weeks in 2015, the first month of 2016...2017 until he dislocated his shoulder and from the AS break though Sept. this year. Put them altogether and we have a big bat .283/.371/.551/.922. The other 44 weeks; most of 2016 when he hit .174/.598 not including two demotions to AAA and the first 16 weeks of this season as an ineffective Conforto recovered from his shoulder injury all add up to .197/.310/.350/.660.

              Cespedes is pretty straight forward, when he plays he hits. Since signing his first Mets contract his slash line book end is .281/.877. Seems that Cespedes has turned out to be injury prone having missed 235 games in the past 3 seasons...16 games into the 2019 season, Cespedes will be on the 60 day DL, that day will also mark the 50-50 line. Half his games in the lineup and 50% injured, resting/rehabbing or on the DL.

              Frazier; Since his rookie season Frazier has averaged 154 games and had never been on the DL...2018 he made two trips, (hamstring and a non oblique rib) missing 43 games, extrapolate the season with the missing games and it's 25 Hrs. and 81 RBI. At 17 M for two seasons he was a low risk signing and it still is.

              Bruce; got off on the wrong foot when traded for in 2016, hitting .183/.552 with 2 Hrs. in 103 PA in Aug. 1st round draft pick by the Reds, he spent most of 16 seasons with one club and also had to abandon his family when traded. Bruce righted the ship hitting .263/.846 w/ 6 Hrs in the drive for the WC in Sept. Bruce was productive in 2017 hitting .256/.841 with 29 Hrs. before being traded to the Indians in Aug., he also had a good post season in a losing effort.

              2018 was all about injury and sacrifice. With both Lagares and Cespedes on the DL, Bruce continued to play with Plantar Faciitis...a back injury and finally a hip sprain that he couldn't play through. Bruce was hitting .212/.613 with 3 Hrs. when he went on the DL - Jun.17th. Missing 59 games Bruce homered in his first game back on Aug.24th and hit .243/.811 with 6 Hrs. in the final 5 weeks. Bruce averaged 29 Hrs. with 90 RBI in the 7 seasons prior and finished 2018 on a the upswing.

              Our rotation got one year older in 2018 and more expensive, Cespedes will cost 29 M whether he plays nor not, Lags, Bruce and Frazier total 32 M. What money available should be directed toward CF, C and BP and the purchase of rabbits feet and 4 leaf clovers to get and keep our big bats on the field.


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              • yogi8
                yogi8 commented
                Editing a comment
                Lagares 242 days on the DL 2016 - 18, Cespedes 235 days. Both players names end in es....fortunately Robles was relatively healthy

            • #8
              what is there to fix? The Mets played .620 baseball from August 4th thru the end of the season...they just need to fire their medical staff, and they would be in the playoffs...

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              • #9
                Would it be too much to ask for Machado?

                What, stop looking at me like that, a boy can dream.

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                • Drucifer
                  Drucifer commented
                  Editing a comment
                  Only if he accepts third base beforehand and his contact is no longer then 7 years.

                • NY FANG
                  NY FANG commented
                  Editing a comment
                  don't worry about Gimenez - I'm sure he'll lose the luster of the fan base by beginning of 2020, so we can just write him off now and fill his spot

                • yogi8
                  yogi8 commented
                  Editing a comment
                  Rosario, McNeil, Reinheimer, Guillorme and now Gimenez....was there a BOGO sale on MIFs?

              • #10
                Maybe Mets and DBacks line up for an offseason blockbuster...

                If we could pry away Paul Goldschmidt (1 year remaining before FA) by also taking on Greinke’s contract ($35 million/yr through 2021, that could put a jolt into this team.
                Offer up Peter Alonso and Justin Dunn as the headliners with Jay bruce going back to them in a pure salary dump on Mets part.

                Could that work?
                With two of their best players, A.J. Pollock and Patrick Corbin, set to hit free agency while other key players …

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                • #11
                  Adding Zack Greinke to a rotation that is already loaded would be tempting, but 105 M over 3 seasons is overkill and not directed at a weakness. Could we land Goldschmidt for..... Dunn looks like a possibility as part of a package with Alonso ...maybe Matz or Oswalt to fill the gap created by Corbin.

                  With Cespedes a no show until...? I believe we need Bruce along with Conforto, Lagares and Nimmo.


                  The Dbacks are in a tough division and even with a good rotation their OF is below avg. corner to corner and Pollock's frequent injuries haven't helped.

                  Comment


                  • #12
                    Yay or nay? Which of these players should we keep versus cut loose under the next GM regime?

                    Catchers:
                    d’Arnaud - Nay (non-tender)
                    Plawecki - Yay
                    Nido - Yay

                    Note - perhaps sign an everyday catcher with Plawecki and Nido as backup options

                    1B:
                    Bruce - Nay (trade to Giants for Melancon?)
                    Smith - Yay
                    Alonso - Yay

                    Note - let Smith and Alonso battle for the position in Spring Training, the loser sent to triple A

                    2B:
                    Flores - Yay
                    McNeil - Yay
                    Rivera - Yay

                    Note - all 3 deserve to be in the organization. Rivera needs to prove his health. Can McNeil become an everyday player? Flores with one more year until FA, might become a strong trade piece come July.

                    3B:
                    Frazier - Yay

                    Note - it’s Frazier’s position until someone challenges him. The other option is to sign Machado and flip Frazier for a low level prospect...not gonna happen.

                    SS:
                    Rosario - Yay

                    Note - this is the most set in stone position in my mind...

                    LF:
                    Cespedes - Yay (can’t move his contract...)
                    Nimmo - Yay

                    Note - Should be Nimmo’s spot until cespedes returns (if he returns). They should also consider adding a reserve outfielder on a 1 year deal ala Austin Jackson

                    CF:
                    Lagares - Yay (not getting moved)
                    Conforto - Yay

                    Note - Lagares is the obvious choice in CF if healthy. Otherwise, Conforto has held down CF real well the last few seasons.

                    RF:
                    Bruce - Nay (see above)
                    Conforto - Yay

                    Note - If Dom Smith and Peter Alonso both make roster, I can see Alonso playing LF. Shifting Nimmo to RF. It’s highly likely that Bruce doesn’t get moved, which ultimately means he’s the RF.

                    SP:
                    deGrom - Yay
                    Syndergaard - Yay
                    Wheeler - Yay
                    Matz - Nay
                    Vargas - Yay

                    Note - I’d retain all except Matz. He hasn’t proven to stay healthy and even when he is, he relies on routine to keep him on track. He lacks that bulldog mentality that the top 3 have. Perhaps package for a controllable bullpen arm.

                    RP:
                    Lugo - Yay
                    Gsellman - Nay (trade)
                    Smith - Yay
                    Swarzak - Yay

                    Note - I can’t remember the other guys...Lugo was the cog last year and he’s also reliable in rotation if someone goes down. Gsellman lacks consistency, so I’d see what I can get for him. All the young guys deserve to battle it out in Spring Training. Swarzak should bounce back...
                    I put greatest focus on the bullpen and improving the back end by adding an experienced closer and set up man - Britton and Brach?







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                    • #13
                      Originally posted by jeffmetsfan View Post
                      Yay or nay? Which of these players should we keep versus cut loose under the next GM regime?
                      JEFF
                      FANG - only putting ones I disagree with in.

                      Catchers:
                      d’Arnaud - Nay (non-tender) Yay
                      Plawecki - Yay
                      Nido - Yay

                      Note - perhaps sign an everyday catcher with Plawecki and Nido as backup options
                      Note - he's cheap, and worse case scenario he goes down again and you're back to the same Plaw/Nido combo. IE nothing lost. Only potential is a Grandal or Ramos signing, but are you really looking to give 3 years to a 30/31 year old catcher?

                      1B:
                      Bruce - Nay (trade to Giants for Melancon?)
                      Smith - Yay
                      Alonso - Yay

                      Note - let Smith and Alonso battle for the position in Spring Training, the loser sent to triple A
                      Note: I agree with the Smith/Alonso thought, I don't know if the new GM will do it. He'll want to make a splash, and the Mets have very few spots to do that. Saving Bruce comment for OF

                      2B:
                      Flores - Yay
                      McNeil - Yay
                      Rivera - Yay

                      Note - all 3 deserve to be in the organization. Rivera needs to prove his health. Can McNeil become an everyday player? Flores with one more year until FA, might become a strong trade piece come July.
                      Note: Rivera likely starts the year in the minors. He needs to rediscover his swing post-TJ Surgery

                      3B:
                      Frazier - Yay

                      Note - it’s Frazier’s position until someone challenges him. The other option is to sign Machado and flip Frazier for a low level prospect...not gonna happen.
                      Note: Not enamored here, but don't know if there's a better option out there (outside Manny), and price is reasonable.

                      SS:
                      Rosario - Yay

                      Note - this is the most set in stone position in my mind...

                      LF:
                      Cespedes - Yay (can’t move his contract...)
                      Nimmo - Yay

                      Note - Should be Nimmo’s spot until cespedes returns (if he returns). They should also consider adding a reserve outfielder on a 1 year deal ala Austin Jackson
                      Note: Just a little rearranging, otherwise mainly agree. I have Conforto here until Ces back.

                      CF:
                      Lagares - Yay (not getting moved)
                      Conforto - Yay

                      Note - Lagares is the obvious choice in CF if healthy. Otherwise, Conforto has held down CF real well the last few seasons.
                      Note: I have Nimmo here until Ces back

                      RF:
                      Bruce - Nay (see above) Yay
                      Conforto - Yay

                      Note - If Dom Smith and Peter Alonso both make roster, I can see Alonso playing LF. Shifting Nimmo to RF. It’s highly likely that Bruce doesn’t get moved, which ultimately means he’s the RF.
                      Note: I don't see the Mets sending Bruce anywhere with Cespedes potentially out most of the year. He'll start in RF and be their every day guy. Not loving the 3 Lefties, which doesn't even include Dom if you give him 1B, but it is what it is.

                      SP:
                      deGrom - Yay
                      Syndergaard - Yay
                      Wheeler - Yay
                      Matz - Nay Yay
                      Vargas - Yay

                      Note - I’d retain all except Matz. He hasn’t proven to stay healthy and even when he is, he relies on routine to keep him on track. He lacks that bulldog mentality that the top 3 have. Perhaps package for a controllable bullpen arm.
                      Note: DeGrom made the most starts for the Mets last year, do you know who made second most? Steve Matz @30. I agree on the lost puppy mentality, but as your 4/5, you're not doing better than 3.97 and 1.247 whip. Sadly I want to Nay Vargas, but not going to cut him, and who would take him? Wheelers also a potential trade candidate if they can't come to terms on an extension.

                      RP:
                      Lugo - Yay
                      Gsellman - Nay (trade) Yay
                      Smith - Yay
                      Swarzak - Yay

                      Note - I can’t remember the other guys...Lugo was the cog last year and he’s also reliable in rotation if someone goes down. Gsellman lacks consistency, so I’d see what I can get for him. All the young guys deserve to battle it out in Spring Training. Swarzak should bounce back...
                      I put greatest focus on the bullpen and improving the back end by adding an experienced closer and set up man - Britton and Brach?
                      Note: This is where I expect to see the most movement. Swarzak is safe because his money is guaranteed. Gsellman isn't going anywhere unless they get a nice price for him. 68 appearances for a guy who's never been a reliever... mismanagement anyone? I would agree on buying a back end.


                      Final Note: I don't think you see much change between the August team and the 2019 opening day Mets. Some back end BP help, definitely. But outside of that, I wouldn't be surprised to see them roll with what they got. C, 1B and CF are really their only positions opened, and it's an incredibly weak FA class for all of those.

                      Nice review btw. Broad-strokes, but got them all.

                      Comment


                      • #14
                        The MLB Offseason Begins



                        by TC ZENCKA

                        October 29, 2018 at 9:29 AM CDT

                        The 2018 season came to a satisfying close last night as Steve Pearce and David Price delivered the knockout punches to Clayton Kershaw and the NL Champion Dodgers. The 2018 Red Sox add to a remarkable run of champions from this century of baseball: from Bob Brenly’s Diamondbacks toppling the Yankee dynasty on Luis Gonzalez’s floater (2001), to the every-other-year dominance of Buster Posey’s Giants (2010, 2012, 2014), to the improbably-long World Series droughts ended by the Boston Red Sox (2004), Chicago White Sox (2005) and Chicago Cubs (2016); the losingest franchise in history won a title (Phillies, 2008), and we even saw a small-market cinderella sneak one past the powerhouses (Royals, 2015). But the most impressive feat of the 21st century might be the remarkable turnaround in Boston since John Henry’s ownership group took over in 2002. The perennially-underdog Red Sox have morphed into a certified juggernaut with World Series victories in 2004, 2007, 2013, and now: 2018.

                        Dave Dombrowski and the Red Sox deserve a ton of credit for using every avenue of team building available to them in putting together this World Series roster. They formed an incredible nucleus of homegrown offensive talent, namely: 7th overall selection in the 2015 draft Andrew Benintendi, 40th overall selection in the 2011 draft Jackie Bradley Jr., and likely AL MVP Mookie Betts, who was a 5th round selection in 2011. Postseason stalwart Rafael Devers was signed as an amateur free agent out of the Dominican Republic, as was Xander Bogaerts, who signed out of Aruba. David Price was their big free agent signing of the 2015 season, while Chris Sale came to Boston from Chicago for a quartet of minor leaguers. Even this season, en route to a franchise-record 108 wins, Boston never rested on its laurels, bolstering its roster with the mid-season acquisitions of Nathan Eovaldi and World Series MVP Steve Pearce.

                        Amazingly, Bogaerts was the only active player on both the 2013 and 2018 World Series rosters, so while congratulations are in store for the Boston Red Sox, Dombrowski and company won’t have long to relish in their newest conquest. Baseball’s other 29 teams won’t allow it. Campaigns to thwart a repeat in Boston launch around baseball today as the focus turns to 2019 and dreams of future champions. As the offseason kicks off, here are a few key dates to keep in mind…
                        • Oct. 29: Commencement of a five-day, exclusive negotiation window that teams have with their own free agents
                        • Oct. 31: Deadline for players with opt-out clauses (most notably, Clayton Kershaw) to exercise those provisions.
                        • Nov. 3: The deadline for MLB clubs to formally issue one-year qualifying offers (valued at $17.9MM this offseason) to free agents is 5:00pm ET. Those players will have 10 days to weigh the offers and can negotiate with other clubs during that 10-day window. After that 5pm deadline, all free agents are eligible to begin negotiating with other teams.
                        • Nov. 6-8: General Managers’ meetings in Carlsbad, CA
                        • Nov. 13: Deadline for players to accept or reject qualifying offers.
                        • Nov. 20: Deadline for teams to set their 40-man rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft.
                        • Nov. 30: Deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players.
                        • Dec. 9-13: Winter Meetings in Las Vegas.
                        • Dec. 13: Rule 5 draft takes place on the final day of the Winter Meetings.
                        • Jan. 11: Arbitration exchange day — the date on which teams and players must exchange filing numbers for arbitration. Hearings, if necessary, typically begin in early February.
                        • March 28, 2019: Opening Day! Baseball is back.
                        Names like Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Patrick Corbin, Josh Donaldson, Dallas Keuchel and Andrew Miller headline the 2018-19 class of MLB free agents. We’ll be running our Top 50 Free Agent rankings, which will include contract projections and predictions as to where each of the 50 will sign. For now, get yourself acquainted with the free agent possibilities by following our 2018-19 Market Snapshot Series.

                        Keep an eye out for the remainder of MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook series as we preview the decisions that each of the league’s 30 teams will face over the winter and some of the routes they could take to Opening Day 2019. No matter who or how you follow, we at MLBTR will be here every step of the way to walk you through another exciting hot stove season, so stick with us as we prepare for a frenetic few months of offseason activity!

                        Drew's Sig

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                        • #15
                          Van Wagenen On Mets’ Offseason



                          by STEVE ADAMS

                          October 30, 2018 at 11:57 PM CDT

                          Many in baseball are still raising an eyebrow at the Mets’ decision to name super-agent Brodie Van Wagenen their new general manager, but the move is officially in the books after Van Wagenen was formally introduced at a press conference today at Citi Field. The former co-founder of CAA’s baseball division is shifting to the other side of the negotiating table and made clear in his initial comments that the Mets will not be embarking on any kind of rebuild (links via Newsday’s David Lennon and the New York Post’s Mike Puma). To the contrary, Van Wagenen portrayed an aggressive, win-now mindset.

                          “We will win now,” said Van Wagenen. “We will win in the future. We’re going to develop a winning culture and a winning mindset. We are going to deliver this city and this fan base a team they can be proud of.”

                          While fans (and quite likely executives) from other clubs had hoped to see the Mets’ new general manager come in with a future-oriented approach and put aces Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard on the trading block, it seems that, too, is unlikely. Van Wagenen plainly stated that he hopes to keep deGrom with the Mets for “a long time” (per MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo). Rather than shopping current stars, it seems the Mets will instead turn to the free-agent market to supplement a promising rotation core but a lineup that is filled with question marks. The rookie GM somewhat nebulously said he “expect[s] to be in on every free agent” — a statement that seems like an over-promise but nonetheless underscores his win-now mentality.

                          Looking beyond the player element of the Mets’ new hire, there are myriad questions about the infrastructure of the team. First and foremost, it’s been made clear that Van Wagenen has severed all ties with CAA Baseball and is no longer affiliated with the agency. The future of his former clients — they could remain at CAA with another agent or conceivably look elsewhere — isn’t clear, but DiComo and others have noted that Van Wagenen has completely divested from CAA. That process, DiComo notes, was made a bit smoother by the fact that Van Wagenen had a salary as the head of CAA Baseball rather than working on commission from his clients.

                          As far as internal improvements go, COO Jeff Wilpon stated that there are resources set aside to beef up the club’s analytics and scouting departments. Van Wagenen suggested that his previous work as an agent can help in both regards (Twitter link, with video, via DiComo). There’s surely some validity to that sentiment, as he’s spent nearly two decades seeking to identify talent and represent the best players possible. More recently, agencies have had to become increasingly familiar with newer statistics, data and trends in an effort to best market their players to teams. There’s also little doubt that he’s a deft negotiator, which figures to serve him well in his new role.

                          Then again, managing an entire baseball operations department while simultaneously dealing with Mets ownership and the New York media will be an entirely different animal. And while Van Wagenen likely does have some scouting acumen and an understanding of the ever-increasing use of data in today’s game, neither has ever been a full-time focus for him. He’ll likely hand pick some new additions to add to both departments for the Mets, and he’ll also have some more experienced baseball ops veterans on whom to rely as he acclimates to a new life within the game.

                          To that end, though, it’s not yet certain which of the Mets’ former top lieutenants will be working alongside him. SNY’s Andy Martino tweets that special assistant (and former Mets GM) Omar Minaya will stay with the organization, but the futures of fellow special assistant (and former Blue Jays GM) J.P. Ricciardi and assistant GM John Ricco are not yet known.

                          Turning to the field staff, Van Wagenen proclaimed that Mickey Callaway will return in 2019 and offered his “full support” of the manager as he enters his second season with the club. Specifically, Van Wagenen praised Callway’s “enthusiasm,” his “energy” and his ability to inspire players.

                          Frankly, it’s not possible to glean the exact approach the Mets will take to putting a contender on the field in 2019 and beyond. There were no concrete numbers put on how much payroll capacity Van Wagenen will have. That’s not unexpected, but it also offers no insight into which types of free agents the Mets can realistically pursue. The Mets have topped $150MM in each of the past two seasons and have a projected $135MM on the books for 2019, per MLBTR’s Jason Martinez, before considering any possible non-tenders. That doesn’t leave much room to add, barring a willingness from the Wilpon family to substantially increase payroll. Perhaps the Mets could look to jettison some mid-range contracts like Juan Lagares or Anthony Swarzak if there isn’t room for payroll to push much further north. Alternatively, players like Travis d’Arnaud and Wilmer Flores don’t seem assured of being tendered contracts.

                          There are still plenty of unknowns following Van Wagenen’s first interaction with reporters as the Mets’ new GM, but the greatest takeaway from the entire event is that there’s little reason to expect the Mets will be putting any type of significant sell-off of major assets into motion. Van Wagenen set the stage for an active winter in terms of adding pieces to a hopeful contender, and fans will now wait to see whether ownership grants him the means to follow through.

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