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Tis' the Season

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  • Tis' the Season

    It's been a long time practice of mine to spend some time with the newspaper boxscores, great source of minutia..some useful, some useless.

    Todays boxscores (8) reminded me that the season is winding down, the key was the number of games (5) that ran over 3 hours.

    Manfred made some changes this season in an effort to improve pace of game with 3 hours as the threshold. I don't remember hearing one word about a team running out of the allowed 6 trips to the mound, Yadi at age 35 has had a slight bounce back which I credit to 2000 trips to the mound he has been spared by the rule limitation. Y-t-D that is 46 miles wearing the tools of ignorance...a lot of wear and tear.

    Should the average game time not fall below 3 hours, Manfred has stated the pitch clock will be next in the battle to control pace of play. Which I view as a waste of time clock.

    What I gleaned from the boxscores was the number of relief pitchers is a large factor; Mets-Dodgers, a 4-2 game featured 9 relief pitchers with 4 mid inning changes...3:30. Padres- DBacks 6-2 game, 9 relief pitchers 3 mid inning changes 3:19. Both games were at or below MLB runs scored as was Rays-BJays 2:38 and Mariners-Orioles 2.33. Reds-Pirates 7-3 was over MLB runs avg., but with only 5 RP and 1 mid inning change game timed out at 2:39.

    Angels-Rangers was a 3-1 game, but with 10 RPs-5 mid inning fans didn't get scoring or good pitching, but did get 3:10 of boring ball.

    The expanding of rosters to allow 40 players, imo, flies in the face of reason. It is in the pennant race with 15 teams contending for a ticket to the post season and the other half playing out the string while evaluating MiL talent. Isn't that what invites to ML camp is about?

    It's September and Tis' the season for long games.

  • #2
    Hopefully most of you watched the Wed Mets-Dodgers game, it was the gem of the day. Mets won 7-3..above the ML avg. of 8.9 runs. The Mets had 14 hits and 5 LOB as a result of 3 DPs. Collectively the teams had 21 Ks, but with only 4 RPs-no mid inning changes and only 2 BB. The game moved along with a lot of interest and was played in 2:39

    The expansion of rosters have and will continue to kill pace of play with an army of relief pitchers available to every manager. In the games that ran 3+ hours 9.4 plied their trade and not successfully most often. In games played in less than 3 hours, RPs per game was 5.5.

    Discontent with pace of play is an illusion, if a game had scoring in a lead -trail-lead scenario with runners on base, sharp defense and pitching that is focused, time doesn't matter. In other words pace of play isn't about time, it's about boredom. BBs are boring even if they are of the abbra ca dabbra type, strikeouts are boring. Would anyone pay to see the King and his Court a second time?

    In 2006 the average game scored 9.7 runs with 13.0 Ks and 3.2 BB, this year to date those numbers are 8.9 - 16.8 - 3.5. At this time 'tis' the season' the strikeouts in this SSS 18.7....Boorrriing


    • #3
      It's called baseball, but the name of the game is pitching, at least Apr.-Aug.

      9 of 12 box scores in todays paper exceeded the 3 hour threshold, in each pitching was the villain. The number of RPs per game was 9.75 which was skewed by the Nats which only used 2 RPs and the Royals with 2.

      The MLB avg. BB this season is 6.4 per game, the average for these games was 9.5.

      How well are the Sept. expansion of pitching doing at limiting base runners which via hits is a MLB 17 per game average which would be counter desirable pace of games. Unfortunately the tide of RPs entering into Sept. games may not have control, but they do have fresh arms like (A's - Rays) the BP game with 14 pitchers including openers and closers. Out 9 game sample averaged 17.7 hits...a minimal increase in interest buried by BBs and a plague of RPs.

      September...roster expansion and the name of the game is pitching gone bad.


      • #4
        I'm not sure if this thread is restricted to a specific topic, etc...

        but...I have an observation/question, and yogi tends to be one of the best at breaking down statistical analysis here goes:

        The Mets offense seemed to start turning around once McNeil started batting 2nd, and Rosario started batting leadoff (and both Conforto/Nimmo followed suit by producing in the heart of the order with XBH/RBI)...

        So my questions are:
        What are Rosario/McNeil batting when they are batting a combined 1/2 in the order (in other words, throw out any time that Rosario was not batting 1st with McNeil batting immediately behind him; and also throw out any time that McNeil wasn't batting 2nd with Rosario immediately before him in the order)...
        What are the Mets as a team hitting with that combo of Rosario/McNeil 1/2?


        • #5
          This isn't completely accurate, but it appears that the Rosario/McNeil debut was around August 5th (not completely accurate because they didn't necessarily hit back to back every game since then)...but:

          Since August 5th:

          Rosario: .308/.343/.478/.821 (BABIP of .346, which isn't overly surprising for someone with his speed if he hits the ball crisply with a liner/grounder);
          31 runs scored, 49 hits, 8 doubles, 2 triples, 5 HR, 20 RBI, 9 steals;
          team record: 22-16 in those games

          McNeil: .329/.367/.483/.850 (BABIP of .348 which also doesn't surprise me with his swing and he's hitting quite often with Rosario on the bases, which keeps the infielders closer to the bags);
          25 runs scored; 49 hits; 7 doubles; 5 triples; 2 HRs; 15 RBI; 5 steals;
          team record: 24-17 in those games


          • saxon
            saxon commented
            Editing a comment
            I know that it's early...but could this be a return of the Mookie/Dykstra; Backman/Teufel type of return to the top of the lineup that has been mostly missing since Doubleday Publishing sold the Mets?

        • #6
          and by the hasn't hurt Nimmo too much moving down in the order, and IMO his bat control helps the middle of the lineup

          Since August 5th:
          Nimmo: .341/.474/.604/1.078 (BABIP of .412);
          21 runs scored; 31 hits; 11 doubles; 2 triples; 3 HR; 15 RBI; only 20 strikeouts in 114 PA's;
          team record: 18-11 in those games


          • #7
            and can't talk these 3 youngster without the other significant youngster, Conforto...

            Since August 5th:
            Conforto: .259/.330/.513/.842 (BABIP of .297, which is ok since his role is to drive in runs, not get obsessed with average/OBP);
            26 runs; 41 hits; 7 doubles; 0 triples; 11 HR; 30 RBI (a bit alarming with 47 strikeouts however);
            team record: 24-17 in those games;


            • #8
              Well, I've got part of your order filled; the Rosario-McNeil hitting 1-2 have combined in 27 games from 8/5-9/16. The team record is 16-11 (.593). Rosario's slash is .291/.325/.434/.761 and McNeil .345/.398/.469/.867.

              What I didn't get is the team hitting with the Rosario-McNeil combination. This was an interesting exercise and seeing McNeil putting up a MVP slash line was surprising. Knew he was hitting but when you see a larger sample than the day to day it is an eye opener.

              Sell me on why the teams hitting is of value...perhaps Nimmo and Conforto have been influenced, but I would credit health as the catalyst for Bruce and Frazier. Even then they aren't consistent. The rest of the team is stagnant.


              • saxon
                saxon commented
                Editing a comment
                As far as how Rosario/McNeil's hitting at the top helps the team's Reaganomics...aka, trickle-down effect...

                Rosario/McNeil aren't just getting on base, but also putting themselves in scoring position (realistically 1st base is scoring position for Rosario with no outs because he'll score from first on a double, or likely will be at least to 2nd by the time that McNeil's at bat concludes)...and because of Rosario's speed, he keeps the defense from doing too many shifts...

                and I realize that people have this falsehood that walks equal hits, but they don't...getting to first is only a small step to producing offense...

            • #9
              Yesterday I looked at Saturday's boxscores and the teams that crossed the 3 hour time of game threshold. This AM Keith Costas on MLB Central had an interesting tidbit. The Phillies-Marlin game was played in 2:48 with 15 pitchers with no pitcher going beyond 2 IP.

              The combined 9 H and 4 BB conspired to keep the game expectedly boring along with the 22 Ks. The interesting pitcher had an AB.


              • NY FANG
                NY FANG commented
                Editing a comment
                No pitcher had an AB? Crazy town. who says only the AL can DH

                My guess is that played a role in neutralizing the larger pitcher count because if you are largely burning at least 6 of those pitchers without a visit to the BP, as well as the two starters, that leaves a total of 7 delays. That's not outside the norm of Apr - Aug baseball, and brings us back to a sub-3 hour game.

            • #10
              some other tidbits related to these 4 key young players:

              Conforto has a 1.019 OPS as a #5 hitter;

              Nimmo has a 1.054 OPS as a #6 hitter;
              Nimmo has a .955 OPS vs RHP;
              Nimmo only has 29 strikeouts when batting lower than 3rd in the order (101 K's batting 1/2/3)

              McNeil has a 1.097 OPS at Citi Field;
              McNeil has a .869 OPS vs LHP (which is awesome for a Lefty, particularly with how the Mets have struggled vs LHP this season);
              McNeil has a .886 OPS as a #2 hitter (which in a traditional NL lineup, is pretty good for a #2 hitter);
              McNeil has only struck out 9 times as a #2 hitter in 140 Plate Appearances there;

              When it comes to Rosario, his numbers aren't going to look overall that pretty because he struggled for the Sandy Alderson part of his MLB career (maybe too much focus on taking pitches, and not enough focus on trusting the talent that got him to the majors) but there are some positive signs:
              Rosario has a .284 batting average vs LHP (with 14 XBH in 134 At Bats);
              Rosario has a .303 batting average on the road (with 24 XBH is 261 At Bats);


              • #11
                well the "core 4" youngsters had 8 hits, 1 walk, 1 stolen base, 1 HR, 1 double, 8 RBI, 2 Sac Flies and 5 runs last night...

                and while I understand the concept that a walk by a slow guy is the statistical equivalent as a hit by a fast guy;

                Rosario had a single and was on 3rd base 3 pitches later without an additional hit/walk solely because of his speed: he stole 2nd easily and then McNeil sac flied him to 3rd and the Mets still had 2 outs to get Rosario home with the heart of the order coming up (Conforto/Frazier/Nimmo)...

                simply put, if Wilmer Flores draws a walk, would he be at 3rd base 3 pitches later? I'm thinking no


                • #12
                  Preaching to the choir Sax...this is the post Alderson era and the return of the SB-1st to 3rd-and the pepper shaker. I just hope that whomever management selects as the GM is old I think of it you and I could handle that job. How do you feel about getting Ces the pus healthy and trade him?


                  • saxon
                    saxon commented
                    Editing a comment
                    thanks...but I think that Ces/Bruce are virtually untradeable...I would go unconventional with Cespedes and move him to 3rd base...hey if Bobby Bonilla, Jose Bautista and Kevin Mitchell could fake it as a 3B, then I think Cespedes could...

                • #13
                  If at 3B, then what are you doing with Frazier next year?


                  • yogi8
                    yogi8 commented
                    Editing a comment
                    One unlikely thought is if Alderson is well enough to return; move Frazier to 2B and Mac the Bat to the bench. Frazier has that beloved big bat which if he hadn't missed > 40 games to the DL, which he had never visited before, would be pushing 30 dingers.

                    With Ces de pus, Frazier, Conforto and Bruce you can put it down in ink for 120-30 Hrs. Add Flo and TdA for another 40 and defense be damned.

                • #14
                  I don't see management benching Mac... More likely that Todd goes to 1st before 2nd. Didn't Ces say something about suggestion a self-move of Ces to 1st (leaving everyone else in their natural position?)


                  • #15
                    There's such a logjam at first and just nothing at third. It can be one of the toughest positions to fill and that's no exception here. This reminds me a bit of the pre-Wright era when there was a revolving door at 3B for years. Frazier should be the guy next year but what a circus with the whole Cespedes/Bruce/Flores/Smith situation at 1B.

                    Of course if they'd just sign Machado it would take care of everything...