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Amed Rosario - His First Full Year

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  • Amed Rosario - His First Full Year

    How Mets Are Trying to Fix Amed Rosario, Beyond This Break



    by ETHAN SEARS

    Suffice it to say, Amed Rosario’s season has not gone as planned.

    A top prospect in the Mets system, heralded as the future at shortstop before being called up midway through 2017, the 22-year-old has posted a slash line of just .245/.271/.361 going into Monday’s game against the Pirates. Perhaps more alarming is that those numbers are worse than what Rosario did in 170 major league plate appearances last season.

    So it’s not surprising manager Mickey Callaway decided Sunday to sit Rosario for a few days, albeit in favor of Jose Reyes — whose batting average stands at .170.

    “Right now, I’m just focusing on learning, basically, see what and how the other team pitches to our team so that I can see and then I can take advantage of that,” Rosario said through an interpreter prior to Monday’s game. “Basically what I’m doing is working with my right leg. So I have to use it more than try to avoid [going] forward.”

    Hitting coach Pat Roessler added that Rosario is “just trying to shorten his movements up a little bit and just be a little bit more consistent so he can catch up to the speed of the game a little bit more.”

    As it happens, Rosario is leaning on Reyes for advice, just as he has for the duration of his Mets career. The embattled veteran doesn’t view this stretch as a shot at redemption, just a chance to do his job.

    Reyes knows what it’s like to be a young player with the weight of expectation in New York. Fifteen years ago, he was 20, getting his cup of coffee in the majors as the Mets shuttled through Jorge Velandia and Rey Sanchez at shortstop.

    “You know, I can’t explain to you but you know, seeing [Rosario], I mean, he’s going out with the same attitude, you know, working hard every single day,” Reyes said when asked what it’s like to struggle in such a situation. “You know, still a lot of baseball left. Still a lot of stuff that he can improve and he can be better at. So still a lot of baseball left, so he can turn his season around.”

    It’s easy for someone in Rosario’s situation to be discouraged, as Reyes knows all too well, but it may be the most important thing for Rosario to avoid.

    “First thing that I tell him, keep your head up. I mean, you know, that’s the key. Stay positive, you know,” Reyes said. “Come over here every day with the same attitude. … Let it fly on the field, so don’t worry about anything.”

    Rosario said there is no consistent time frame for fixing the issue with his right leg, which he is working with Roessler to do.

    The hitting coach points out Rosario’s chase rate is down from 47 percent last year to 40 now. Incremental progress is happening, and though the shortstop has a long way to go, the ceiling Mets fans salivated over still is within reach. Patience is key.

    “It’s just repeating [adjustments] day after day after day,” Roessler said. “We’ve had good days and bad days and some days he’s better than others. And some days he gives himself a pretty good chance to hit and other days, you know, his mechanics get a little out of whack and he struggles a little bit.”

    His current slump — a .530 OPS in the month of June — will pass. To Rosario, it’s just a matter of getting back out on the field.

    “Well basically, the slumps, the only way I can get out of it is playing,” Rosario said, “so try to take advantage of every moment.”


    Drew's Sig

  • #2
    Drew's Sig

    Comment


    • #3
      so there might be a 2nd part of the classic Dominican Baseball player joke: "Nobody walks off the Island..."

      2nd part, "...they wait until they get to Miami to do their walking"...

      Comment


      • #4
        yes his overall numbers aren't pretty but, he's been showing his potential lately...

        when he's the first batter of the game:
        .313 average; .938 OPS; with only 7 K's in 35 PA's;

        first pitch of the count:
        .422 average; 1.111 OPS;

        and he's hitting .292 on the road; and .274 vs LHP;


        .

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        • #5
          an interesting article about Rosario's improvement from mlb.com

          https://www.mlb.com/news/amed-rosari...ed/c-292515000

          Rosario's breakout may just be getting started

          Only four hitters have cut strikeout rate more since last year


          By Mike Petriello MLB.com @mike_petriello
          an hour ago

          Nearly three months ago, we ran a piece titled "2018's Most Improved Hitters." It wasn't just based on early-season stat lines; it was looking at under-the-hood factors like improved hard-hit rate or decreased strikeouts. Most of the names made plenty of sense, like Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts and Mitch Haniger. Sometimes it's not hard to see improvement.

          One name that didn't make sense on that Top 10 was Amed Rosario. At the time, he was hitting .251/.284/.366, a line that was 25 percent worse than the Major League average. If the underlying peripherals were trying to tell us a breakout was coming for Rosario, it was a difficult one to see. And all these months later, he's hitting all of .249/.290/.372, which is to say ... nearly the same below-average line he had back in June.

          Rosario's breakout hasn't officially arrived yet, but the factors that made him pop up on our list back in June haven't changed -- and we might just be finally seeing the beginnings of the production that the improved underlying metrics hinted at.

          Over the past three weeks dating back to the Mets' off-day on Aug. 9, Rosario is hitting .329/.360/.482. He just put up seven hits in three games in Wrigley Field against the Cubs. Now we're only talking about 90 plate appearances here, and in most cases, you'd be tempted to pass this off as a hot streak. Maybe that's all it is. But with Rosario's very recent status as a highly rated prospect, and with the arrows all still pointing in the right direction, now seems like the right time to dig into this a little more.

          Are we seeing the start of Rosario's ascension? If we are, these are the reasons why.




          Rosario's leadoff home run 00:00:41 2018-08-16T16:05:00-0400
          Rosario is striking out less and walking more
          In his partial-season debut in 2017, Rosario struck out 29 percent of the time -- that's bad; the Major League non-pitcher average was 21 percent. He walked just three times, which came out to a walk rate of 1.8 percent -- that's bad, too; it was the lowest in the Majors. In fact, Rosario struck out 16 times for every walk, which was one of the dozen worst ratios of any player with 150 plate appearances in a season dating back to the dawn of integrated baseball back in 1947.

          So there's that, but there's also this: Rosario has shown improvement on both of those numbers this year. (You might rightfully point out that he didn't have a high bar to clear, and that's true. But he's only 22, and a poor debut doesn't mean that movements in the right direction don't count.) Rosario's walk rate has nearly tripled from that 1.8 percent to 5.1 percent, which is still below average, but better.

          More impressively, Rosario has stopped striking out so much. There have been 450 hitters who have taken at least 150 plate appearances in each of the past two years, and only four have cut their strikeout rate by as much as Rosario has.

          Biggest improvements in strikeout rate in 2017-18
          1. 12.4 percent, JaCoby Jones (42.2 to 29.8)
          2. 9.8 percent, Corey Dickerson (24.2 to 14.4)
          3. 8.8 percent, Trevor Story (34.4 to 25.6)
          4. 8.6 percent, Adam Engel (34.8 to 26.2)
          5. 8.3 percent, Rosario (28.8 to 20.6)

          That's not just a big step forward, that's eliminating a weakness. The non-pitcher strikeout average this year is 21.5 percent, and Rosario is below that. He's also now slightly better than average at making contact. That doesn't happen by accident, of course. Rosario has made some notable changes.

          "The hitting coaches really feel like he's making some improvements from day to day, week to week," Mets manager Mickey Callaway told MLB.com back in July, a positive sign given that the team had benched Rosario for a few days in late June to find those improvements.

          You can find those changes in the numbers. Rosario has been swinging at more strikes as the year has gone on. He's been missing fewer and fewer of those in-the-zone pitches as the year has gone on. As far as plate discipline goes, that's the trend you want to see.



          All told, Rosario's chase rate -- swings outside the zone, also known as "exactly what a pitcher wants you to do" -- is down from 40 percent to 35 percent. His contact rate in the zone is up from 70 percent to 80 percent. Rosario is walking more, he's whiffing less and he's making better plate decisions. That's not all, either.

          Rosario is hitting the ball harder
          Let's be clear here: Rosario is always going to be more Billy Hamilton than Giancarlo Stanton. He's not in the Majors to crush homers, and no one expects that he's going to be a 30-homer type. Rosario has 28 total homers in parts of six professional seasons.

          Still, it's good to hit the ball hard. We define a "hard-hit" ball as one that's hit with at least 95 mph of exit velocity, because that's where hitting the ball hard really "matters." So far this year, the Majors are hitting .523 with a 1.044 slugging percentage at 95 mph or more of exit velocity, and just .220 with a .259 slugging below it. Even if you're not a power hitter, it's good to hit the ball hard.

          Last year, Rosario's hard-hit rate was a mere 25 percent, below the average of 33.3 percent. This year, that's jumped up to 32 percent, which is still slightly below average. But the point here isn't to say that Rosario is a slugger. It's that he's trending in the right direction.

          Rosario has also shown the ability to get to some seriously hard-hit levels, when things go right. When he hit a homer on May 20, it came off his bat at 109.5 mph. While that's just a single batted ball, it also tells you something about what Rosario can do; only 2 percent of all batted balls in the Majors this year have been hit that hard. Consider that he has a single ball hit that hard, which is exactly what you could also say about sluggers Chris Davis, Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon and Matt Carpenter.




          Rosario's 1st home run of 2018 00:00:51 2018-05-20T13:10:00-0400
          Rosario has something they don't, of course, and that's elite speed, as he ranks in the 97th percentile of the Sprint Speed leaderboards.

          Again, none of this is to guarantee that Rosario is going to be a star. He's still a player with an unacceptably poor career line of .249/.285/.372 in essentially a full season of play. It's going to take more than a few good weeks to change that. But Rosario is still so young, younger than rookies Miguel Andujar, Harrison Bader and Brian Anderson. He was a consensus top prospect just a year ago, for good reason. The underlying signs of improvement have been there for most of the season for Rosario. It seems like the actual production may finally be arriving behind it.

          Mike Petriello is an analyst for MLB.com and the host of the Statcast podcast.

          Read more: New York Mets, Amed Rosario

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          • #6
            I can't think of another Mets position prospect that arrived with as much potential going back to DW and Jose. He arrived unfinished, but under the care of Callaway and tutoring of Jose and Bautista and maybe Nimmo as an example he is smoothing off the rough edges and turning into....a gem?

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            • saxon
              saxon commented
              Editing a comment
              he's the type of player that I enjoy watching...he turns a routine grounder between the pitcher and the shortstop into a double when he sees that he can...is he perfect? no, but he's got natural talent that is hard to come by...Just as Murphy and Flores slowly transformed their defense into being decent enough with their hitting; I think that Rosario will slowly learn how not to chase pitches enough so that he scores 100 runs a season...
              Last edited by saxon; 30-Aug-2018, 01:07 PM.

          • #7
            it left out the charts:

            Click image for larger version

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