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Amed Rosario - Is 2020 His Last Mets Year?

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  • Amed Rosario - Is 2020 His Last Mets Year?

    What do we do with Amed Rosario if he loses the Shortstop Job?

    by Allen Settle
    13 Sep 2020

    What’s next for Amed Rosario if he loses the starting shortstop job?

    The New York Mets have had no shortage of disappointing storylines during the hectic 2020 MLB season.

    Between Noah Syndergaard’s injury, Marcus Stroman’s surprising opt-out, closer struggles, and poor play by Rick Porcello, Michael Wacha, and Steven Matz, the Mets night just lead the league in seemingly insurmountable hurdles.

    However, one storyline seems to have flown under the radar: the poor play of incumbent shortstop Amed Rosario. The former number two prospect in MLB has been a disaster during the shortened campaign.

    The Struggle

    Much was expected of Rosario following an encouraging 2019 season. He finished the year with a .287 average, 19 steals, 15 homers, and 75 runs scored. While he was not dominant in any individual aspect of the game, his speed and athleticism allowed him to be a rare jack-of-all-trades. The ability to produce 15+ homers and steals has real value in MLB, particularly when it is accompanied by a good batting average. There were many reasons to believe Rosario was on the cusp of a breakout.

    It never happened. A season primed with potential has been marred with severe regression. The shortstop has posted a middling .248 average, three home runs, and zero steals over 117 at-bats this season. His defense, which has always been an issue, has continued to be a mess. Simply put, his season has been a train wreck.

    To be fair, Rosario is one of many major leaguers in the midst of a disappointing season. There is no doubt that the delayed season, accelerated summer training, and historically odd season has taken its toll. It is likely that the former top prospect will rebound during normal conditions next season. At least to a point.

    However, there are other factors that must be taken into consideration.

    The Replacement

    These struggles have been compounded by the surprise emergence of top prospect Andres Gimenez. The rookie has burst onto the scene during his first taste of major league action, recording a .292 average, seven steals, and two homers over just 89 at-bats so far this year. He has also flashed a much more consistent glove. He has shown excellent defensive ability and one of the game’s most difficult positions. And he has the flexibility to shift around the infield.

    Mets fans are clamoring for Gimenez to take over as the everyday shortstop in 2021. He has already proven to be a more dangerous hitter, base runner, and defender than Rosario. Barring a major setback, he seems primed for potential stardom.

    This is great news for the New York Mets. Not so much for Rosario…

    The Solution

    There is seemingly only one reasonable course of action for the Mets moving forward. If they indeed feel confident that Gimenez is capable of handling a role as the everyday shortstop, they must consider trading Rosario.

    While is value is glaringly less high that it would have been last offseason, MLB general managers will have the foresight to avoid placing too much emphasis on this odd season. At the end of the day, Rosario is still only 24-years-old, has a history of productivity, and has legitimately great speed. It stands to reason that many teams, both rebuilding and contending, will be interested.

    This places Rosario in an awkward position in New York. It appears obvious that he will be supplanted as the everyday shortstop. His potential is also too high to settle for a backup role. The Mets would need to add depth at the position. But it would make much more sense to capitalize on Rosario’s remaining value than let to waste away in a backup role. Signing a veteran infielder to a team-friendly contract would also ease the transition.

    The Value

    This is the real question. How much is Rosario worth at this point in his career? His name had been mentioned in potential trade discussions surrounding All-Stars like Francisco Lindor and JT Realmuto. It seems obvious this caliber of target is no longer a reasonable asking price.

    However, the Mets have a number of needs that could be addressed. Whether it be adding depth to the minor league farm system or looking for a major league ready starter, bullpen arm, or centerfielder, the potential to add difference-making talent is still on the table.

    Players like Lance Lynn, Raisel Iglesias, Danny Duffy, Wil Myers, and many others were all speculator trade candidates near the trade deadline. It’s possible that Lynn and Iglesias could be acquired in a deal where Rosario is the only notable piece leaving NYC. And both could make a major impact.

    Drew's Sig

  • #2
    I would revisit the idea of moving him to CF. He has the speed, and we don't have a real CF.


    • #3
      This is from an SNY article, it doesn't seem to make sense. One of the reasons he was supplanted was due to Gimenez's superior defense.


      If you break things down just by looking at chances at shortstop, Amed Rosario has been worth 3 OAA in 65 attempts compared to 2 OAA for Gimenez in 47 attempts.

      This is a continued step in the right direction for Rosario, who improved his defense in a big way in 2019 after whispers that he could potentially be moved to center field.


      • #4
        Rosario has been very good. Gimenez has been exceptional.


        • #5
          this season, I don't think Rosario's defense is what has been questioned by his coaching's been his offense...


          • #6
            Originally posted by West Coast Mets Fan View Post
            This is from an SNY article, it doesn't seem to make sense. One of the reasons he was supplanted was due to Gimenez's superior defense.


            If you break things down just by looking at chances at shortstop, Amed Rosario has been worth 3 OAA in 65 attempts compared to 2 OAA for Gimenez in 47 attempts.

            This is a continued step in the right direction for Rosario, who improved his defense in a big way in 2019 after whispers that he could potentially be moved to center field.

            when I look at the numbers for the Mets on the link inside the article, I see:
            Rosario; Gimenez; Cano: good;
            McNeil; JD; Alonso; Conforto: bad;
            Nimmo: worst in the league;

            Dom: neutral at first; only slightly bad in LF (which would make him our best starting OFer by their respected position);

            What has hurt Rosario in the past is his lateral movement towards 3rd, this season he's been normal going towards 3rd, and has excelled at charging the ball...

            if we want to "fix" the 2nd/3rd tier part of the pitching staff (aka, the guys that aren't named deGrom), then we need to fix the OF defensively (Both Nimmo and Conforto are LFers playing out of position)...and having a catcher that can throw and reach low or outside pitches without looking like he's lunging, would give those types a fighting chance...

            Last edited by saxon; 15-Sep-2020, 09:03 AM.


            • #7
              I think Conforto has proven that he can play RF at a high level. He is fine there.

              Nimmo is a decent LF, but not a good CF (defensively). He needs to be a LF if at all possible.

              Perfect world? Rosario can play CF (he has speed and a good arm, that COULD translate into CF if he can track fly balls). Nimmo moves to LF and leads off (I know that explodes some other poster's heads, but a leadoff guy with some pop, a .400+ OBP, and a touch of speed is pretty damn good). Conforto sticks to RF. Smith moves to his most natural position, 1B. Alonso takes advantage of the NL adopting the DH. Davis continues as the 3B. McNeil is the 2B. Gimenez is the SS, with Mauricio lurking. Realmuto is signed as the C. That's a damn good starting lineup.

              The two flies in the ointment are Cano and his contract and Rosario's ability to play CF.

              It would have been great to have a potential young, fast, defender for center field. Maybe someone home grown and cheap. But we don't have that. We did...

              Damn, that Diaz/Cano trade just screws us over and over...


              • #8
                I know that with today's philosophy that runs and RBI don't "count"...but this season, I saw an awful lot of guys on 2nd with less than 2 outs that didn't score...and guys that didn't even try to score from 2nd on a clean single to the OF...

                Rosario has always gotten criticized for this lack of walks, but Jeff McNeil is kind of applauded for his first pitch hits...I have seen Rosario take pitches that were called strikes in his effort to gain walks...

                however...getting back to my point...Rosario had more Runs scored in fewer Plate Appearances than McNeil this season...despite mostly batting 7th, 8th or 9th; whereas McNeil batted primarily near the top of the order...

                Rosario: 20 runs in 147 Plate Appearances, while only getting on base 40 times and only 8 XBH;
                McNeil: 19 runs in 203 Plate Appearances, while getting on base 77 times with 18 XBH;

                How can you score only 19 runs with putting yourself in scoring position 18 times?

                that is not a criticism of McNeil, but an example of just how much that the Mets need to improve their team speed.



                • #9
                  I don't think this is a product of team speed. McNeil isn't slow and not a station to station runner. My eyeball test didn't have Rosario rounding 3rd on any plays where McNeil was similarly held. To simplify what it appears your saying, "Rosaio is faster than McNeil. Rosario scored more than McNeil. It must be that McNeil is too slow. If McNeil is too slow, the Mets in general are too slow" This is in my opinion an example of two events that occurred and looked related, but they are simply just coincidental.

                  A few stats that that I would look at for causation is the mets led the league in average (.272). They were 13th in total runs scored. They were last for most runners left in scoring position. (If anyone can find their average with RISP, that would help show the drop between team average and clutch average).

                  Guys you expected in the meat of your order hitting with RISP:

                  Alonso: .234
                  Conforto: .277 (respectable)
                  Davis: .167
                  Cano .308 (good)
                  Ramos: .139

                  Those are supposed to be your RBI bats, and frankly, those averages with RISP are going to leave a lot of men stranded. Speed always helps, but this is not an issue speed, but an issue with timely hits.


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